Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 88720.062545 93593.042160 98462.545787 103690.308030 109140.374162 114651.235159 120641.283982
2025-02-09 80672.991557 88137.200654 95802.983764 104253.671872 113297.499228 122675.157647 133123.253443
2025-02-16 74475.560960 83663.442693 93305.656347 104157.450024 116008.335378 128535.241197 142755.491637
2025-02-23 70090.321303 80595.806075 91821.315572 104672.986418 118942.462283 134263.325911 151919.223807
2025-03-02 66237.333374 77753.417892 90255.704259 104784.705777 121150.208164 138959.481922 159749.335842
2025-03-09 63752.002554 76217.740650 89942.087423 106101.811139 124533.726624 144826.774313 168780.580105
2025-03-16 60526.652623 73636.517744 88263.799251 105701.556731 125826.858933 148226.863695 174942.101963
2025-03-23 58833.539547 72702.468806 88361.576345 107235.552267 129245.619584 153978.341863 183742.580127
2025-03-30 56979.055490 71469.293425 88016.200789 108169.031193 131901.680443 158810.217153 191466.910627
2025-04-06 54883.328380 69846.401890 87121.806498 108374.289346 133638.270295 162529.553116 197874.940258
2025-04-13 52826.638980 68178.303195 86090.842371 108340.514543 135028.400764 165797.753943 203727.968545
2025-04-20 51867.284792 67788.936844 86543.510889 110040.258815 138449.668867 171440.938390 212383.763891
2025-04-27 50921.107204 67398.619489 86992.907887 111752.864553 141927.462597 177219.410398 221307.803267
2025-05-04 49558.710944 66441.583941 86711.480921 112547.162287 144283.817358 181668.419772 228679.726856
2025-05-11 47857.233247 64996.419221 85773.905187 112486.787499 145562.445023 184801.972334 234469.496315
2025-05-18 46561.212327 64015.084087 85367.836867 113044.457515 147568.847007 188799.198653 241304.783385
2025-05-25 45135.560101 62816.673393 84644.359950 113165.292569 149004.514633 192084.683204 247273.873271
2025-06-01 44384.458226 62459.216802 84956.767266 114567.304229 152021.639879 197306.767313 255630.565352
2025-06-08 42849.364069 61028.366520 83857.732803 114141.485998 152719.728894 199656.548113 260452.953853
2025-06-15 42302.715606 60877.503168 84382.942635 115773.719051 156004.923105 205214.412951 269263.779168
2025-06-22 41509.766986 60370.622605 84424.357296 116766.836128 158471.994441 209759.069290 276838.092312
2025-06-29 40427.869565 59442.128728 83886.615130 116985.194288 159933.417860 213039.620103 282843.028689
2025-07-06 39290.819376 58404.857003 83175.148877 116949.264582 161047.268124 215872.004326 288287.827156